Sunday, August 03, 2014
Replacement Level is NOT the same thing as the Average Level
At the 5:00 mark, I did my best to transcribe word for word what Patrick Minton said:
That is NOT AT ALL what anyone is saying. We're talking about Willie Bloomquist, the bubble player, the last guy on the team, the guy signed to the minor league free agent contract that might be lucky to get on the bench. What the old timers call "the Mario Mendoza line". Indeed, I've often said that if I were to rollout my implementation of the WAR framework, I'd call it "Wins Over Willie", or W/W, to make it clear that this line is a very real line. I mean, we're even debating whether a team of replacement level players in the NBA would be a .050 or .100 or .150 or .200 win% team. That is very much NOT average. (In baseball, we've settled on around .300.) I don't know who in basketball encapsulates the replacement level line as much as Willie Bloomquist does for baseball, but I'd like to hear some names. Because obviously, we need names as illustrations to show that this nebulous concept is very real. Hattip: Jared for pointing out the falsehood.?Another problem I have with the replacement level player myth and I'm going to keep calling it that is the idea that any replacement level player will produce at an average level. That is really ridiculous. Because by definition half the players in the NBA will play below average. So the idea that any random player off the street who wants to play in the NBA would step in and play at the average or even median level is kind of crazy.