Sunday, April 12, 2015
Pace to win 162 games… or 87?
?Ah, the old silly things people say at the start of the season. Since the Royals and Tigers are 6-0, you get those "pace to win 162 games". The first thing wrong with that is that the Royals and Tigers will eventually play each other, considering they are in the same division. But setting that aside, good luck isn't a "pace".
If let's say Usain Bolt entered a marathon, and ran the first 100m of the 42,195m race in 10 seconds, would he be "on pace" to run the marathon in 4219.5 seconds (1h 10m)? No, no one would be silly enough to suggest that.
The Royals and Tigers are on a pace to win 87 games. They may win more. They may win less. But their current pace suggests that it's centered around 87 wins. If you include their talent level, as well as their pace, they are likely to have a wins total centered around 90 wins.